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Post by boonechaser on Sept 13, 2017 11:21:19 GMT -5
Just curious what members think
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Post by lawrencecountyhunter on Sept 13, 2017 12:02:18 GMT -5
Big difference in deer numbers between October 1st and January 1st. If we lose 130k to legal harvest each year, and probably close to that amount in illegal harvest, roadkill, predation, disease, old age, etc., I'm thinking we're probably right up there around 500k for the herd to remain somewhat stable.
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Post by tynimiller on Sept 13, 2017 12:04:06 GMT -5
No biologist, but I'd somewhat agree with Lawrencecountyhunter's assessment or estimation.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2017 12:06:25 GMT -5
In 2015 the estimate was 730,000. My guess with addition predictors increase the last few years around 630,000.
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Post by boonechaser on Sept 13, 2017 12:10:54 GMT -5
Read some where that biologist figure hunters kill around 25% of herd each year. Throw in illegal taken deer and disease/accident would put in 500,000 and change??
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Post by greghopper on Sept 13, 2017 13:42:27 GMT -5
I thought the IWDHM was going to count the deer herd....do what the DNR couldn't do!
Have they even counted the Deer in the 10 CDAC thy formed? Anyone know or seen a number?
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Post by bill9068 on Sept 13, 2017 14:16:12 GMT -5
Thought I read somewhere that road kill and poaching, predators kill as many as hunters. Agree with Lawrencecountyhunter.
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Post by boonechaser on Sept 13, 2017 15:56:09 GMT -5
I thought the IWDHM was going to count the deer herd....do what the DNR couldn't do! Have they even counted the Deer in the 10 CDAC thy formed? Anyone know or seen a number? Might try to have them do same poll on their site. Be interesting to see results. Guessing low numbers as alot of people there believe deer are near extinction in Indiana. |
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Post by tenring on Sept 13, 2017 16:20:49 GMT -5
Years ago, in a parking lot discussion with a IDNR official that was "off the record", it was stated that the illegal kill was close to being what the legal kill was. Has the times changed any?
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Post by boonechaser on Sept 13, 2017 16:30:24 GMT -5
Years ago, in a parking lot discussion with a IDNR official that was "off the record", it was stated that the illegal kill was close to being what the legal kill was. Has the times changed any? I would guess if you factor in disease, vehicles, predators and poaching you probably are Close to legally harvested number. |
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Post by firstwd on Sept 13, 2017 16:55:22 GMT -5
It would seem that we have some pretty smart fellers on this here site. I'm not surprised.
Biologists for decades have estimated the deer herds with this same formula. Legal registered kills as 25%, unregistered deaths as 25%, and surviving animals as 50% of the herd. So, if hunters take 125,000 animals, and unregistered deaths are 125,000 animals, then the surviving animals are 250,000, and therefor the herd size is right at 500,000 animals. Obviously this is not an exact set of numbers, but it works and has worked for a very long time.
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Post by Russ Koon on Sept 13, 2017 18:43:56 GMT -5
But, firstwd, if we don't know how many there are, how do we know the "time-honored, tried and true" method REALLY worked all those years? I have a pretty nice antique watch that is exactly right twice a day, so it works great if you look at it the right time. 8^)
Now if "works" means it provides a number they can claim to be correct, knowing that we have no way to check the accuracy, then I agree, it works great and will continue to do so, whether we see any deer or not.
I'd say the numbers should be increasing pretty rapidly, as the ones in this part of the state have apparently become much better at staying out of traffic. I saw four roadside carcasses this summer on my frequent trips on local highways. Pretty sure that was a slight increase over last year, but WAY down from the good old days.
My personal guess is that the numbers are considerably lower than the official estimates. I suspect the reduction programs have worked too well for too long, while the DNR relied too much on the previous year's kill as the best indicator of herd numbers. But, that's just my guess, and I admit as much.
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Post by firstwd on Sept 13, 2017 19:07:41 GMT -5
But, firstwd, if we don't know how many there are, how do we know the "time-honored, tried and true" method REALLY worked all those years? I have a pretty nice antique watch that is exactly right twice a day, so it works great if you look at it the right time. 8^) Now if "works" means it provides a number they can claim to be correct, knowing that we have no way to check the accuracy, then I agree, it works great and will continue to do so, whether we see any deer or not. I'd say the numbers should be increasing pretty rapidly, as the ones in this part of the state have apparently become much better at staying out of traffic. I saw four roadside carcasses this summer on my frequent trips on local highways. Pretty sure that was a slight increase over last year, but WAY down from the good old days. My personal guess is that the numbers are considerably lower than the official estimates. I suspect the reduction programs have worked too well for too long, while the DNR relied too much on the previous year's kill as the best indicator of herd numbers. But, that's just my guess, and I admit as much. You are correct. Without exact numbers no one knows if it actually works or how close it is. Then again, this was the same model state agencies have used all those years getting the Midwest to those "Good old days". If anybody knows a way to get exact herd numbers besides complete eradication, a giant fence, and starting over I'd love to hear it. |
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Post by greghopper on Sept 13, 2017 19:12:31 GMT -5
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Post by nfalls116 on Sept 13, 2017 19:30:49 GMT -5
500,000 is like what 13 per sq mile?
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Post by span870 on Sept 13, 2017 20:01:00 GMT -5
500,000 is like what 13 per sq mile? 13.7+ |
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Post by nfalls116 on Sept 13, 2017 20:30:27 GMT -5
500,000 is like what 13 per sq mile? 13.7+ I was going to just round it to 14 but then when I tried putting thoughts to text it changed but yes 13.7 is closer. Not sure how much area or indiana is uninhabitable by deer but I'd guess a pretty low percent maybe 15-20% at most anyone know how much land is considered urban in indiana by sq miles? |
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Post by boonechaser on Sept 13, 2017 20:31:39 GMT -5
Can't speak to other areas but my home area has to be 45+ as I see more than that in just my fields of a evening.
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Post by Woody Williams on Sept 13, 2017 20:46:42 GMT -5
Yesterday morning I had nine right behind my fence just outside of Newburgh . 25 yards from my back deck..
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Post by span870 on Sept 14, 2017 5:45:49 GMT -5
I was going to just round it to 14 but then when I tried putting thoughts to text it changed but yes 13.7 is closer. Not sure how much area or indiana is uninhabitable by deer but I'd guess a pretty low percent maybe 15-20% at most anyone know how much land is considered urban in indiana by sq miles? I'm not doing all your math for you. You're a big boy. Figure it out. |
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